NIT Quarterfinals: Four Free Picks for Tuesday's Two-Game Slate

The NIT quarterfinals tip Tuesday night with both games on ESPN2, and the market is sending some interesting signals on a two-game slate. Wichita State and Tulsa meet for the fourth time this season — a rivalry that’s produced a combined 483 points across three games. Meanwhile, Saint Joseph’s travels to The Pit in Albuquerque to face a New Mexico team that wins at home but has a troubling habit of failing to cover big numbers.

Wichita State (+3.5) at Tulsa (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

This is the fourth meeting between these AAC rivals, and the home team has won every time. Tulsa took the first matchup 93-83 at home on February 1st, then Wichita State won both in their building — 81-77 on February 15th and a dominant 81-68 just ten days ago. That most recent game was a statement: the Shockers are 9-1 in their last 10 and rolling into Tulsa with momentum.

The moneyline tells the real story. Only 13% of bets are on Wichita State to win outright, but 52% of the money is. That’s a textbook sharp divergence — the big-dollar bettors are on the Shockers. The spread has responded, narrowing from the opener of Tulsa -4.5 all the way down to -3.5, a full point of movement toward Wichita State. Tulsa is 27-7 and won their last NIT game 77-66 against UNLV, but they’re only 40% ATS in their last 10 games at -2.36 units. They win, but they don’t cover.

Getting 3.5 points with a team this hot, attracting this much sharp action, in a rivalry where every game has been competitive? That’s a strong spot.

The pick: Wichita State +3.5 (-108), 4 units

Over 152.5, Wichita State at Tulsa

Two of the three season meetings between these teams cleared 152.5, including a 176-point shootout at Tulsa in February. Kenyon Giles (21.5-point prop line, over juiced at -128) and Tylen Riley (15.5, over at -131) are both expected to produce. The public is hammering the over at 87/88%, and the total hasn’t budged — books aren’t scared of the liability, but the H2H data supports the number clearing.

The pick: Over 152.5 (-110), 2 units

Saint Joseph’s (+10.5) at New Mexico (9:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

New Mexico hosts at The Pit as 10.5-point favorites after beating Sam Houston and George Washington to reach the quarters. The Lobos are the better team on paper at 24-10, but here’s the catch: New Mexico is just 40% ATS at home this season with -2.36 units. They win in Albuquerque, but they consistently fail to blow teams out — even with the 5,312-foot altitude advantage that’s supposed to gas visitors.

The sharp money actually favors New Mexico here — 52% of bets are on Saint Joseph’s but only 34% of the money. The line briefly touched -11.5 before retreating back to -10.5, though, which shows resistance to a bigger number. The Hawks have five players with sportsbook prop lines compared to just three for New Mexico, suggesting deeper, more balanced scoring. Derek Simpson’s over is juiced at -131 on a 13.5-point line, and Dasear Haskins sits at 11.5. That kind of depth keeps games competitive.

These teams have never played each other, which adds uncertainty. But 10.5 points in a NIT quarterfinal — where motivation and familiarity with high-leverage games matters — is a lot to lay.

The pick: Saint Joseph’s +10.5 (-110), 3 units

Over 152.5, Saint Joseph’s at New Mexico

New Mexico’s games have gone over 70-80% of the time recently, and both teams have multiple scorers projected in double figures. The total briefly moved to 153.5 before settling back at 152.5, and the public is 95% on the over with no resistance from the books. NIT games at home venues tend to be up-tempo and high-energy — The Pit will be rocking.

The pick: Over 152.5 (-110), 2 units

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