Saint Louis Crushed Georgia by 25. Here Are Two Free Friday Picks.

Last night’s free pick — Saint Louis +2.5 against Georgia — didn’t just cover. The Billikens won 102-77. That’s a 25-point blowout from a team getting points. SLU led 49-32 at halftime and never looked back. We talked about the 12-point divergence between bet percentage and money percentage as a sharp signal, and the sharps were right in a big way. That’s two straight free picks cashing, going back to Miami (OH)‘s outright win over SMU on Wednesday.

Friday’s first round slate is loaded, and we’ve got two more free plays. No paywall, no catch — just sign up for free pick alerts below and these (plus future free picks) land in your inbox.

Utah State -1.5 vs Villanova (4:10 PM ET, TNT)

Utah State is 28-6 and the Mountain West Tournament champion. Villanova is 24-8 out of the Big East. On paper this looks like a coin flip, but the market disagrees — and so do we.

The line opened at USU -1.5 and hasn’t moved. That might sound boring, but it’s actually the most telling signal on the board. The number briefly touched -3.5 earlier in the week before getting pushed right back. When a line keeps settling at its opener despite heavy action, it means the market has this number right and the sharp money is balanced. At -1.5 the Aggies only need to win, and their 28-6 record says they do that consistently.

The bet/money split confirms it: 51% of bets but 62% of dollars are on Utah State. That 11-point gap is professionals backing the Aggies while the public stays split. Nova’s tournament pedigree is real, but pedigree doesn’t cover spreads — recent form does.

The pick: Utah State -1.5

Under 129.5, Iowa vs Clemson (6:50 PM ET, TNT)

This total opened at 130.5 and has been ground down to 129.5 with the juice now sitting on the under side at -112. That’s the market telling you where the smart money went — not just on the number, but through it.

Iowa comes in at 21-12 and Clemson at 24-10. Both teams are ice cold: a combined 7-14 over their last 10 games. Both previous head-to-head meetings went under. Iowa’s been covering the spread recently despite losing, which means they’re playing tight, competitive, low-possession basketball. Clemson’s in the same boat.

March Madness first-round games between two teams limping into the tournament tend to be rock fights. Neither team trusts its offense right now, and the neutral-site setting with tournament nerves only tightens things further. The 129.5 total is already the lowest on Friday’s board, and the line movement says it should be even lower.

The pick: Under 129.5

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