Sunday Second Round: Sharp Money Widening the St. John's Line, Plus Two Free Plays

The second round rolls on Sunday with a loaded CBS/TNT/TBS slate, and there are some fascinating market signals across the board. St. John’s demolished Northern Iowa 79-53 on Friday behind Zuby Ejiofor’s 14-point, 11-rebound, 4-block double-double, while Kansas needed Darryn Peterson’s 28 points just to escape Cal Baptist by 8 — failing to cover a 14.5-point spread after getting outscored 42-30 in the second half. Those Round 1 performances matter heading into tonight.

St. John’s vs Kansas (5:15 PM ET, CBS)

The spread opened at St. John’s -2.5 and has widened to -3.5, crossing through a key number. The bet/money split on the spread is diverging — one side has noticeably more dollars than tickets, which typically signals professional action. The moneyline has moved meaningfully since open, too.

Kansas led Cal Baptist 38-18 at halftime in Round 1 but got outscored 42-30 in the second half, needing Darryn Peterson’s 28 points on 11-24 shooting just to win by 8. Melvin Council managed 4 points on 2-9. The Jayhawks are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 and 4-6 SU in their last 10 away games, with 90% of those road games going under.

St. John’s had seven players score in their 26-point demolition of Northern Iowa. Ejiofor posted a 14-point, 11-rebound, 4-block double-double, Hopkins added 13, and Ian Jackson scored 9 in just 9 minutes off the bench. That kind of depth versus Kansas’s Peterson-dependent attack is a fascinating contrast, and the market is picking a side.

Under 136.5, UCLA vs UConn (8:45 PM ET, TNT)

The total opened at 139.5 and has dropped 3 full points to 136.5. That’s a significant move on its own — but 82% of bets and 77% of money are on the over. When a total drops by three points against overwhelming public over action, that’s reverse line movement driven by sharp under money. It’s the strongest signal on Sunday’s board.

UCLA scraped past UCF 75-71 on Friday, failing to cover -5.5 in a game that felt tighter than expected. UConn handled Furman 82-71 but didn’t cover their massive 20.5-point spread. Neither team looked like they wanted to run up the score. Player projections support the under — UConn’s top four scorers project for a combined 52.5 points, UCLA’s top four for just 42.9. That’s 95 combined from starters, leaving over 40 points needed from benches to clear this number. In a tournament game between two programs that can control pace, that’s a tough ask.

The pick: Under 136.5

Texas Tech ML (-112) vs Alabama (9:45 PM ET, TBS)

This is essentially a pick’em, and the market has been wrestling with it all week. The spread opened Texas Tech -1.5 at -120 juice, briefly flipped to Alabama -1.5, then settled back on TTU -1.5 — but the juice swung all the way to +110. That kind of movement tells you the books are getting heavy Alabama action on the spread.

The moneyline tells a different story. Texas Tech has 49% of bets but 59% of the money — sharp bettors prefer the Red Raiders to win outright. TTU looked dominant in Round 1, beating Akron 91-71 with four players scoring 14 or more. Jaylen Petty went 5-7 from three for 24 points, Christian Anderson added 18 with 5 assists and 4 steals, and bench big Josiah Moseley was a force with 16 points on 7-8 shooting and 4 blocks. Alabama beat Hofstra 90-70, but they’re 5-5 ATS in their last 10 despite going 8-2 SU — they win but they don’t cover. Texas Tech is +1.45 ATS units over the same stretch.

At -112, you’re getting near even-money on the side the sharps prefer, with the better ATS profile and more convincing Round 1 tape.

The pick: Texas Tech ML (-112)

The St. John’s pick is available below — the sharps are on one side and the line is moving for a reason. Grab it before tipoff.