Saint Louis is 28-5 and Getting Points Against Georgia. Here's What We See.

Last night’s free pick — Miami (OH) +7.5 against SMU — didn’t just cover. The RedHawks won outright, 89-79. That’s a 32-1 team that the market disrespected as 6.5-point underdogs, and we grabbed an extra point of value at +7.5 before the number moved. Tonight, we’re back with another mid-major that the betting public is sleeping on.

Saint Louis vs Georgia tips at 9:45 PM ET on CBS from Buffalo, and the line tells a familiar story: a Power Five brand getting more respect than it deserves.

The Billikens Are the Better Team on Paper

Saint Louis enters at 28-5. Georgia is 22-10. That’s not a marginal gap — the Billikens have six fewer losses and went 16-4 in the A-10, dominating their conference from wire to wire. Robbie Avila has been the engine all season, averaging 12.9 points and 4.1 assists per game as the kind of two-way facilitator who makes everyone around him better. Dion Brown has been a steady 11.6 points in recent games off the perimeter.

Georgia’s last outing was an SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss, 76-72, as 5.5-point favorites. Saint Louis also stumbled in their conference tournament, falling to Dayton 70-69 as 4.5-point favorites. Both teams are coming off tight losses, but only one of them is getting points.

Sharp Money Is Quietly Backing the Dog

Here’s where it gets interesting. Saint Louis is getting just 37% of spread bets — the public loves Georgia’s SEC pedigree. But 49% of the actual money is on the Billikens. That 12-point divergence between bet percentage and money percentage is the kind of signal that sharp bettors are backing SLU while the casual public loads up on the Bulldogs.

On the moneyline, it’s a similar story: SLU draws 25% of bets but 34% of the money. The professionals see value here.

The Total Has Our Attention

The over/under is set at 168.5 — a big number. Georgia averages 84.3 points over their last 10 games, and SLU scores 87.2 per game on the season. On the surface, that math works. But there’s more to the story.

Saint Louis has gone under in 70% of their last 10 games. Georgia shoots an efficient 47.1% from the field but allows opponents to shoot just 37.9%, a 9.2-point differential that should slow SLU’s pace. March Madness first-round games between unfamiliar opponents also tend to play tighter than regular season totals suggest — nerves, scouting adjustments, and tournament intensity all compress scoring. The public is already on the under at 77%, and for once, the crowd might be onto something.

We have two plays on this game tonight. The free pick is Saint Louis +2.5 — grab it below. The premium play is our total, where we see the sharpest edge on the board.

Ride with us into March.